Mobile revenue roundup - WK50

Drecom stabilizes at 2x past revenue baseline - strongest catalyst in mobile this quarter so far. No notable new opportunity this week.

We maintain a complete database of all publicly traded companies that are active in mobile marketplaces, and estimate their mobile revenue on a daily basis using proprietary tools.
This dash looks at trends in weekly revenue, and is one of multiple used for triage towards researching companies.

Public companies Dashboard - Highlights

Here is the dash, remarks below:

Reminder: The “Est. Rev Delta“ % is an increase/decreased from last week’s estimated mobile revenue versus the average of the past 7 weeks of mobile revenue.

Winners this week

US-traded

Nothing of significance, all below 25% increase, no major catalyst.

Worldwide Markets

Lots to cover her, but no real catalyst. Most of these increase in revenue represent less than 10% of the company’s TTM revenue. In details:

Archosaur (9990.HK) is just usual week to week movement, pass.

MAG Interactive (MAGI.ST) has seen a notable 57% estimated weekly revenue growth which is very significant compared to its usual revenue variation! This translates to an annualized increase of $1.4M, about 5% of their TTM revenue. This might just be the valuation catalyst needed for a company with a market cap of $23.8M. The sharp rise is largely driven by "Wordzee!" with a 243% increase.
Nice to see an uptick, but 5% of TTM revenue is not yet catalyst territory. Worth watching if that trend continues. Revenue had been flat for a few months.

CAVE Interactive (3760.T) is showcasing a robust weekly estimated revenue growth of 48%, which, if annualized, suggests an uptick of $6.5M—about 8% of their TTM revenue. Slightly stronger catalyst than MAG but still not very significant.
Looking at the chart, it’s mostly standard fluctuations. However at a $40M market cap, CAVE Interactive is a profitable, low valuated (PE ratio of 4.1 and an EV/Sales of 0.4), so we’re constantly eying for a surge in revenue. This isn’t meaningful enough yet, but to be continued.

Mobile Factory (3912.T) has an estimated 47% bump in weekly revenue, translating to a potential 10% annualized gain relative to its trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue. Their game "駅メモ！ - ステーションメモリーズ！-" (Station Memories!) alone accounted for most of this surge, jumping 46% to $232K.
This change is notable against its past weeks' revenues, which hovered around $150K but recently spiked above $200K. They’ve recorded the highest one day revenue in a year. Still, it doesn’t appear to have legs:

GREE, Inc. (3632.T) is the bigger player in the list, with a $500M market cap. We made good money on them a few years back.
Its 46% estimated weekly revenue growth translates into an annualized bump of $40.9M—roughly 10% of its TTM revenue. Could this be a valuation catalyst? Let's see. Key games here are "アナザーエデン 時空を超える猫" [Another Eden: The Cat Beyond Time and Space], spiking 118% in revenue, and "ヘブンバーンズレッド" [Heaven Burns Red], jumping 82%. Both apps aren't fresh launches though, and a look at their daily revenue chart tells us it’s unlikely to stick.

Loosers this week

No company passed our minimal thresholds for mention.

Ongoing Picks - Watch list

• Drecom (3793.T) still shows up in the ‘looser’ list, same reason as last wee, it’s because of a VERY successful launch.. Let’s keep it short - it’s still one of the biggest catalyst out there, with the current revenue baseline 2x what it was pre-launch. So we keep these shares.

  

• Gala Technology (2458.HK): Revenue started to limp last week - that’s bad news for what is one of our favorite (due to its valuation, profitability, high insider ownership and the fact they serve a dividend). We have a few shares, we’re keeping them for now, it may just be temporary. H2 earnings will likely surprise investors, we bank on that.

  

  Chart only considering iOS China (so triple that red line if you want an assumption of iOS + Android in China)
  

• Gravity, Feiyu, Qingci: Nothing to see. All stable.

Conclusion

Drecom, although being on the looser list, is stabilizing its revenues at a much higher baseline. This quarter will be their best in a long time.

Otherwise, no major action.